Stragies Unlimited predits that LED Market will emerge from a slow growth phase. The growth will exceed 20% over next five years. The applications and product mix will also change.

Steele predicted that the largest application segment in 2012, with 44% of the market, will be Signs & Display, which includes backlighting for large LCD screens (monitors and TVs). In 2007 the largest segment was Mobile Appliances, with a 44% share. However, the largest growth in 2007 was seen in the Illumination and the Signs & Displays segments, both of which grew by over $100 million.

Between 2004 and 2007, unit shipments have increased by 26% per year to around 39 billion units, while average selling prices (ASPs) have fallen by around 16%. Overall, the product mix has shifted quite dramatically, with high power packages now accounting for 10% of the market, compared with less than 4% in 2004.

Startegies Unlimited defines high power packages as those driven by a current in excess of 150 mA. In 2007, around 39% of high power LEDs were used in mobile application, mainly for camera flash, while 37% were used for illumination applications.

Solid State Illumination

Illumination accounted for 7% of the LED market, or $330 million, in 2007, and this figure is expected to grow to nearly $1.37 billion by 2012. The Illumination segment grew rapidly in 2007, which revenue more than 60% higher than 2006. Steele reported a lot of new activity in Asia, and many companies entering the market with new products andideas, some of which are attracting the attention of venture capital companies. As shown by the DOE’s Caliper program , the performance of LED lumunaries is highly variable, which claims frequently exceeding measured results.